It's an old world after all

Stat house
May 2002

It's an old world after all
By 2050, the number of people 60 years or older worldwide will outnumber those under 15. The United Nation's Second World Assembly on Aging warns that this statistical reality will affect economic growth, investment and consumption, labor markets, pensions, taxation and transfers of wealth, property, and care from one generation to another. Aside from economic considerations, the population shift will hold potentially drastic consequences in health care and disease management, family composition and living arrangements, housing, and migration.

Of course, the impact of the population shift will be felt differently in developed and developing countries and regions. Older populations are actually increasing faster in the developing world and these countries often lack the financial resources to cope with the problem. The World Health Organization (WHO) calls attention to the fact that older people are especially susceptible to non-communicable diseases, like heart disease, cancer, or depression. Developing countries will face a double burden in controlling already rampant disease and expanding aged populations who suffer from these ailments.

At the U.N. assembly, WHO released its Active Aging Policy Framework, a policy guide to help countries deal with the impact of population increases. Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland, Director General of WHO, said at its unveiling, "A healthy population is a prerequisite for economic growth. The predicted explosion of non-communicable diseases in the ever-increasing number of older persons globally will result in enormous human and social costs unless preventive action is taken now. A disproportionate amount of resources will need to be diverted to handle these largely preventable health problems."

WHO promotes a "life-course approach" to prevent non-communicable diseases before they start, because research has shown that such diseases are rooted in early childhood. Lifestyle choices like tobacco use, alcohol abuse, lack of physical activity, or an inadequate diet can contribute to problems later in life.

The WHO policy guide also promotes safety and healthcare for older people, such as implementing programs to provide affordable assistive devices like eyeglasses and walkers, as well as mental health programs, and the creation of safe environments to ensure mobility for older people.

Perhaps one of the greatest elements of WHO's concern for expanding aged populations is the fact that there are less younger people to support them in their infirmity. The Potential Support Ratio (PSR)—the number of persons aged 15-64 per one person over 65—has decreased from 12 to nine in the last fifty years. By 2050, WHO predicts that ratio will drop to only 4 to 1.—Tara Dix

Signs of an aging planet:

In 1950, people over 60 comprised 8 percent of the total world population. In 2000, they comprised 10 percent. By 2050, researchers predict the number will climb to 21 percent.

The majority of older persons (those over 60) are women.

The largest share of older persons lives in Asia, with 54 percent. Twenty-four percent of the world's older people live in Europe.

Life expectancy has climbed 20 years since 1950—up to 66 years worldwide.

In developed regions, nearly 20 percent of the population is over 60. By 2050, this population should grow to one-third of the total.

In developing regions, 8 percent of the population is over 60, but will increase to 20 percent by 2050.

This year, the world's median age is 26. By 2050, the world median age will be 36. In Yemen, the median age is currently 15. In Japan, it's 41.

The fastest growing population group is represented by people over 80 years old. This group is growing 3.8 percent annually.

Seventy-eight percent of older men are married. Only 44 percent of older women are married.

The number of potential supporters (aged 15-64) for older people has fallen to just 9 potential workers per person over 65. In 1950, the ratio was 12 to 1.

Countries with higher per capita incomes tend to have fewer workers over age 60. In developed regions, only 21 percent of men over 60 works for pay, while 50 percent of men in developing regions do the same. For women, 10 percent work in developed regions, while 19 percent work in developing regions.

In developing countries, only half of its citizens over age 60 can read and write.

For more information:
U.N. Second World Assembly on Aging
Fact sheet on aging populations
About Aging and Life Course

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