Americans support Iraq war, but only with international backing

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October 2002

Americans support Iraq war, but only with international backing
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Americans support Iraq war, but only with international backing

American support for a U.S. military assault on Iraq remains high overall, but falls substantially if the U.S. goes it alone against Iraq. Overall, 64 percent of Americans say they would support the attack on Iraq sought by the Bush administration but only 33 percent said they would support a unilateral attack on Iraq.

According to an analysis from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, public support for the use of force in Iraq appears to be growing somewhat more solid. While the number favoring military action is unchanged from late August, support is now less dependent upon allied agreement than it was a few weeks ago. In August, supporters split evenly (30 percent to 30 percent) when asked if they would still support military action if U.S. allies refused to go along; now, those who would favor a unilateral approach outnumber those who would change their mind in the absence of allied support (33 percent to 25 percent). A poll of 1,150 adults was conducted by the between September 12 and 16 with an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The survey says . . .
Would you favor or oppose taking military action in Iraq to end Saddam Hussein's rule?

Overall — 64 percent favor, but that drops to 33 percent if the United States must act without allies.

Republicans — 77 percent favor, dropping to 43 percent if no allies.

Democrats — 42 percent favor; 13 percent favor if no allies.

Independents — 65 percent favor; 38 percent favor if no allies.

Would you favor or oppose taking military action in Iraq to end Saddam Hussein's rule, even if it meant that U.S. forces might suffer thousands of casualties?

Overall — 48 percent favor, but that drops to 25 percent if no allies.

Republicans — 66 percent favor; 20 percent favor if no allies.

Democrats — 35 percent favor; 13 percent favor if no allies.

Independents — 47 percent favor; 24 percent favor if no allies.

Another recent poll seems to confirm the Pew results. It found that a majority of Americans opposes Congress granting the President's request for the authority to attack Iraq, unless the resolution specifies that the action would first have UN approval. That poll was conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes. The poll of 709 Americans was fielded by the research firm Knowledge Networks September 26 - 30.

"This position is derived from two deeply held attitudes in the American public about using military force: that Congress should be involved in the decision and that the U.S. should not go it alone" comments Steven Kull, PIPA's director. Asked whether Congress should "grant the President's request" for authority, 60 percent said that Congress should, "retain the right to vote if the U.S. should go to war." However when presented the option that the Congressional resolution would only authorize the use of "military force against Iraq if the UN Security Council votes to authorize such action" 76 percent were ready to give him authority.

In the current debate about whether America's goal should be to seek to disarm Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction or to achieve regime change the public comes down on the side of disarmament. Asked to choose between two arguments 68 percent chose the one that said that ""If Iraq allows the UN to conduct unrestricted inspections, the U.S. should agree to not invade Iraq." Support for pursuing disarmament persists even though a majority (58 percent) expresses strong doubts that UN weapons inspectors will be effective in eliminating the Iraqi threat. Only one in five want to give up trying and proceed to military action.

In addition to conducting its own polling PIPA simultaneously released a comprehensive analysis of polling data from other organizations as well. A careful analysis of the question wording helped explain what may seem to be discrepant findings.

Support for invading Iraq is actually fairly soft. In a variety of poll question support is initially in the 51-59 percent range. When questions raise the prospect of significant U.S. or Iraqi casualties, or a long war, support drops, often below half. Questions that ask about "military action" receive higher levels of support, but further questions reveal that this higher level of support is for more limited forms of military action—such as airstrikes or Special Forces operations—not for invasion with ground troops.

Most striking, multilateral support is critical to public support. Only a small minority supports invading Iraq without multilateral support—whether specified as the participation of allies or UN approval. However with multilateral support, a strong majority supports an invasion. Without multilateral support the public is divided about whether to take more limited military action.

Other key findings:
Most Americans (79 percent) believe that Saddam Hussein already has the capability to attack targets in the U.S. with weapons of mass destruction. If disarmament through inspections is not an option, given the choice between dealing with this threat through deterrence or military preemption, a majority (56 percent) chooses the latter. Kull comments, "This suggests that, if efforts at disarmament through an inspection process fail, a majority would support using military force, even with the risk of attacks on American cities."

The problem of Iraq is seen as a high a priority but not as high as the problem of Al- Quaeda. Just under half (47 percent) say it is very urgent to resolve the problem of Iraq. The questionnaire was designed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) a group of social science researchers who study public opinion on international issues, and which is a joint program of the Center on Policy Attitudes and the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland.

The poll was fielded by Knowledge Networks, a polling and social science research firm in Menlo Park, California, using its nationwide research panel, which is randomly selected from the national population of households having telephones and subsequently provided internet access. For more information about this methodology go to http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.

The full results of the poll and the analysis of polls from other organization can be found on the PIPA website or a report can be obtained by contacting PIPA at 202-232-7500.

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